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China’s soybean commitments add pressure to US export capacity | IFCHOR GALBRAITHS
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5 November, 2025
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China’s soybean commitments add pressure to US export capacity

Following the US–China Presidential meeting on 30-Oct, the White House announced that …

… China agreed to purchase 12Mt of soybeans in 2025 and at least 25Mt annually in 2026–2028 (pending confirmation from Beijing).

China has already built record soybean reserves — the highest since Sep’21 — through heavy buying from cheaper South American origins. This week, Chinese importers reportedly booked 10 Brazilian cargoes for Dec’25 and another 10 for Mar–Jul’26, as Brazilian beans remain significantly cheaper than US supplies, even after China cut tariffs on US soybeans from 23% to 13%.

With US export terminals, especially in the PNW, already stretched by record corn sales, limited capacity remains before the new Brazilian crop floods the market in Mar’26. If the 12Mt 2025 deal is confirmed, much of it may only be shipped during 2026. For further insights, contact research@IfchorGalbraiths.com.